Tuesday, October 04, 2016


Ocracoke islanders have been keeping an eye on Hurricane Matthew since he first developed in the Caribbean, and there has been much uncertainty about Matthew's long range forecast. Needless to say, we had all been hoping Matthew would turn eastward and vent his fury in the North Atlantic. However, forecast models have been revised frequently, at least every three hours, suggesting various tracks along the coast.

United States Naval Research Laboratory Photo

The latest information I am aware of suggests that Matthew is expected to track more westerly, and may make landfall somewhere along the US East Coast later this week.

According to https://www.wunderground.com/ on 10/3/16, "it is still too soon to determine how big the danger will be in parts of the U.S. late this week and next weekend.... Recent runs of forecast guidance suggests at least a decent chance of tropical storm-force winds near the coast of the Carolinas and southeast Virginia Friday into Saturday."

In any event, Ocracoke seems destined to feel some effects of this hurricane. I will continue to post information from Ocracoke as the storm approaches.

This month's Ocracoke Newsletter is about earthquakes that have affected Ocracoke and the Outer Banks. You can read the newsletter here: http://www.villagecraftsmen.com/news092116.htm.


  1. I'm still praying for an easterly route. Yesterday's runs, as you mentioned, still put it more to the west and hugging the coast. I haven't seen this morning's path predictions, yet, but there's still plenty of uncertainty...

  2. http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_14.gif

  3. Anonymous4:14 PM

    I have reservation on the island for the 9th waiting on more info with hope for the safety of the Island and its residents.